By Bogdan B., Villiger R.
This e-book is the 1st entire consultant to valuation in lifestyles sciences for pros, traders, and teachers. Boris Bogdan and Ralph Villiger introduce the features of drug and clinical gadget improvement, clarify tips on how to translate those into the valuation, and supply worthy information. After guiding the reader during the thought of valuation, together with discounted cash-flow and actual techniques, the authors display how you can price initiatives, patents, licences, agencies and shares on real-life examples, even treating advanced licence and corporate constructions. detailed emphasis is wear the practicability of the proposed tools through together with many hands-on examples, with out compromising on reasonable effects. Ralph Villiger and Boris Bogdan have written what's guaranteed to turn into the regular reference for valuation of pharmaceutical and biotechnology tasks and corporations. At a time while the healthcare is putting expanding emphasis on licensing and M&A as a middle technique this e-book presents a company knowing of ways during which items and companies might be worth all levels in their improvement.
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Extra resources for Valuation in Life Sciences: A Practical Guide
Sample text
In our example, we assume that a company develops a product. The product first has to pass two development phases, where it is tested on feasibility and other concerns like compatibility with other products, compliance with regulation or safety. We estimate the peak sales to be $ 150,000. The volatility of our estimate is 30%. The project is at the start of the first development phase that lasts 2 years. We now decide whether to go ahead or not, depending on the project value. After two years, the project will finish phase 1 testing with a success rate of 75%.
Uncertainty Cash flows are linked to two different natures of uncertainty. The first uncertainty concerns the accuracy of the estimate. We do not know in advance, how large a cash flow will be. Many factors like competition or regulation influence the actual size of the cash flow. This uncertainty can be negative, if for instance a competitor launches a better product. But the uncertainty has also an upside; imagine that the product sells better than anticipated, or costs are lower than expected.
Discounting takes full account of time value and uncertainty. Probabilities (or success rates in the life sciences context) cover the shortfall risk. Time value of money. The concept of time value bases on the fact that people prefer a dollar today to a dollar tomorrow. A dollar today has more value than dollar in the future. To keep its value, money must accrete. This value increment is called interest. Somebody investing a dollar in a project wants to get more than the dollar he invested after one year, because he could also have put his money on the bank and earn interest on it.