By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Neel Krishnan, Scott Weidman, John Kambhu

The steadiness of the economic climate and the opportunity of systemic occasions to change its functionality have lengthy been serious matters for significant bankers and researchers. contemporary occasions recommend that older versions of systemic shocks could now not seize all the attainable paths of such disturbances or account for the expanding complexity of the economic climate. to aid check those matters, the Federal Reserve financial institution of recent York and the NRC cosponsored a convention that introduced jointly engineers, scientists, economists, and monetary marketplace specialists to advertise greater figuring out of systemic hazard in various fields. The ebook offers an exam of instruments utilized in ecology and engineering to check systemic cave in in these components; a evaluation of present traits in fiscal learn on systemic possibility, the funds procedure, and the industry of interbank cash; and for context, descriptions of the way systemic danger within the economic system impacts buying and selling actions.

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Additional resources for New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk: A Report on a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences

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The examination of the Federal Reserve’s Fedwire system in Chapter 4 of this volume exemplifies this mode of intellectual sharing: researchers adapt tools from outside of economics—namely, network theory and graph theory—to learn what insights can be gained by applying them to a problem of systemic behavior in the area of payments. The second way is by 29 Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. html 30 NEW DIRECTIONS FOR UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMIC RISK sharing insights that are particular to a given field and that, by analogy, might apply to other fields.

However, tight linkages among individuals can also be a cause for concern because they can induce systemic collapse. Conservation biologists have shown considerable interest in the degree of synchrony in species populations: In unsynchronized populations, some individuals thrive while others are in decline; in synchronized populations, a collapse in one place translates into a collapse in all places. Like contagion, synchrony can lead to systemic risk in the form of a system failure or a sudden jump to a less desirable equilibrium.

In the camera industry, for example, Kodak has continued to change its camera designs and products over the years. Neither the Polaroid nor the Kodak strategy is “right” per se, but each is right over a particular time horizon. In changing environments, one needs flexibility, whether it is in ecological systems or in banking systems. For example, Levin noted that the flexibility of the influenza virus accounts for its robustness. On the surface of the virus are proteins called surface antigens, in particular haemagglutinin and neuraminidase.

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