By Cynthia Grabo, Jan Goldman
Instruction manual of caution Intelligence: Assessing the possibility to nationwide protection was once written through the chilly warfare and labeled for forty years, this guide is now on hand to students and practitioners attracted to either background and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, writer of the abridged model, waiting for shock: research for Strategic caution, is going into element at the basics of intelligence research and forecasting. The e-book discusses the issues of army research, difficulties of figuring out particular difficulties of political, civil and financial research and assessing what it capacity for analysts to have _warning judgment._
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Additional resources for Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security (Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education)
Example text
Warning which exists only in the mind of the analyst is useless. He must find the means to convey what he believes to those who need to know it. From the policy level, it is this factor probably more than any other which distinguishes warning intelligence from all other intelligence. The policy maker can and does get along without a vast amount of information which is compiled by the intelligence community. Some officials more than others will be receptive to intelligence information and will seek to learn details on such subjects as order of battle, weapons, internal political developments, economic plans and so forth.
Thus, in this meaning, strategic warning hopefully can be issued weeks (or even months) in advance, when a large-scale deployment of forces is under way, or the enemy has made known his political commitment to some course of action entailing the use of force. This judgment—of the probability of military action at some time in the future—is unrelated to the imminence of action. The judgment may be possible only when enemy action is in fact imminent, but it may also be possible long before that. In this sense—and it is the sense in which intelligence normally uses it—strategic warning is an assessment that the enemy has or probably has taken a decision to employ force.
Preparation for war or possible war often can be traced back for months once it becomes clear that a real threat exists, and pieces of information which appeared questionable, unreliable or even ridiculous when received will suddenly have great relevance to the present situation, provided the analyst has saved them and can fit them into the current pattern. Further, information which is months old when it is received (and therefore scarcely rates as current intelligence) may be immensely valuable.