By Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Roger Cliff
Escalation is a usual tendency in any type of human pageant, and state-of-the-art safety atmosphere calls for that the us be ready for a number of escalatory threats. This research of escalation dynamics and ways to escalation administration attracts on a number ancient examples from international battle I via Somalia within the early Nineteen Nineties to notify escalation similar decisionmaking.
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Additional info for Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century
3, Winter 1983–1984. 1 or controlling escalation, two sets of properties loom large: the mechanisms by which escalation can occur (discussed here) and the motives that cause actors to pursue escalatory behavior (examined later in this chapter). Three different but not always separate types of mechanisms may lead to escalation, which we label as deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental escalation. Deliberate Escalation As its name indicates, deliberate escalation occurs when the actions of a state (or other actor) cross an escalatory threshold in a conflict or a confrontation more or less intentionally.
1, Summer 1992). This is a classic example of the difficulties of divining an adversary’s thresholds and the associated risks of inadvertent escalation. , 1991, especially pp. , 1991, pp. 208–219. The Nature of Escalation 25 may or may not still be required, depending on whether the action still holds appeal once its escalatory potential is made clear. Several factors make this more problematic in practice than it may appear at first glance, however. One is that an inadvertent escalation risk may not be recognized in advance by any party in a conflict.
17 Escalation dominance was a central concern of Cold War–era strategists, who worried, for example, about facing situations in which the Soviets might possess the ability to fight a European war at a level of escalation that would be disadvantageous to the West, leaving NATO with a grim choice between losing the war or raising the level of violence and, subsequently, raising the costs of such a conflict to still-higher levels. S. S. 2, September 30, 2003, p. 33). 18 True escalation dominance is rarely attainable in any challenging confrontation, however.