By David T. Moore
Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
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S. would thwart these measures if they were taken. S. less accurately, 45 the American predictions were inaccurate. It could have been worse. As Gil Merom writes, the Soviets might James G. Blight and David A. , Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (London, UK: Frank Cass, 1998), 22. Emphasis in original. ” 43 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 29. 44 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 28, 58. S. Intelligence never did reach a correct conclusion. S. Intelligence,” 28). 45 Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 45.
Military reactions to every perceived Soviet and Cuban threat. Here again, 63 Ben-Israel, “Logic of the Estimate Process,” 679 64 Ben-Israel, “Logic of the Estimate Process,” 691. – 28 – 65 critical thinking could moderate this Cassandrian approach. The questioning of assumptions and points of view in critical thinking allows analysts to discount certain evidence. Based on his own Israeli intelligence analyst experiences, Ben-Israel asserts that anchoring oneself some distance from a pole of refutation, and not far from 66 the center, is probably best.
S. S. sought and was able to obscure them until after the test. Then, the Indian government boasted of its 11 success. Abduction forces a close consideration of the evidence at hand. ” Only then can an assessment of accuracy be determined. ” Despite their individual limitations, induction, deduction, and abduction taken together offer a means of thoroughly examining evidence in order to arrive at accurate intelligence conclusions. However, as becomes obvious from studying figure 1, in order to be successful, intelligence analysis requires something more: an overarching framework is needed to ensure reasoning relies on valid assertions, is not fallacious, and is self–consciously objective.