By Yutaka Kosai, Yoshitaro Ogino
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Why had the sharp rise in investment not resulted in supply exceeding demand? 2. Would the level of investment continue to rise? 3. Should investment fall off, would the growth rate be adversely affected? =o In (or, with g as the rate of increase in investment, Io[(l+g)'-IJ/g) multiplied by k (the reciprocal of the capital coefficient) which expresses the fixed proportion of investment realized in an increase in production. 2 for g. In 1955-60, therefore, Hori stated, a rate of increase in investment higher than the growth rate had probably been necessary to maintain the balance between supply and demand.
A fall in the growth rate automatically brings about a rise in the capital coefficient. Capital coefficient = I/t1Y. When the growth rate falls, replacement investment's share of gross plant and equipment investment increases. When this happens, the numerator I rises steadily, but the denominator t1Y is not affected, so the capital coefficient rises. Let us illustrate this by looking at the period 1970-80. 2 per cent in 1980. As a proportion of gross investment, replacement investment rose from 27 per cent in 1970 to 39 per cent in 1980.
65 for 1975-9, so that a much higher growth rate was actually possible. However, there were also people who thought that because of the instability of energy supply and prices it was wise to calculate on the safe side, so that to them a lower rate of growth was acceptable. In other words, what kept the growth rate down was not so much the physical limits of the availability of raw materials, but rather the uncertainty involved, which made forecasting the future such a difficult task. 5 to over 3.