By Ephraim Kam
Ephraim Kam observes shock assault during the eyes of its sufferer in an effort to comprehend the reasons of the victim's failure to expect the arriving of conflict. Emphasing the mental element of war, Kam strains the habit of the sufferer at quite a few practical degrees and from a number of issues of view with the intention to study the problems and errors that let a state to be taken without notice. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming struggle are extra advanced than the other factor of strategic estimation, related to such interdependent elements as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational hindrances, and political in addition to army constraints.
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Thus during 1971 Israeli intelligence believed that war rnight break out in the near future. This assumption changed durillg 1972, as President Anwar Sadat's "Year of Decision" (1971) passed without overt evidence of Egypt's capability or intent to attack. In 1973 Israeli intelligence further reviewed its assessment that war was not expected before 1975 or 1976. Defense Minister Dayan's estimate underwent a striking change during the spring and summer of 1973 from a perception of high threat and high probability 22 The Components of Surprise Attack of war to the assumption that war would not occur in the near future.
3-5). The main problem concerning technological surprise lies in the development of countermeasuroo. In many cases, taking effective countermeasures requires information about internal components of the new equipment, the acquistion of which takes time. Hence the development of countermeasures may lag considerably behind the deployment of the enemy's equipment. , p. 4). In some cases delayed knowledge of internal characteristics of a weapon may calIse technological surprise with regard to the weapon itself if war breaks out in the interim.
S. State Department's INR (Intelligence and Research) assessed that the political climate in the Arab states argued against a major Syrian attack on Israel at that time (Cline, 1974, pp. 131-134; Pike Papers, 1976, p. 7). Another kind of erroneous estimate of the enemy's timing occurs when the victim believes that his opponent prefers to achieve its goals by other means, such as political pressure, guerrilla warfare, or clandestine activity, and that the enemy might resort to military action only if all other means failed.