By Jon Cooksey
SAS Pebble Island - The Falklands battle 1982 КНИГИ ;ВОЕННАЯ ИСТОРИЯ Издательство: Pen & Sword (LEO COOPER)Серия: Elite Forces Operations SeriesАвтор(ы): Francis Mackay с Jon CookseyЯзык: EnglishГод издания: 2007Количество страниц: 123ISBN: 1-84415-515-3Формат: pdfРазмер: 53.0 mbTells the tale of the SAS raid on Pebble Island throughout the Falklands battle. In atrocious climate, forty eight males of twenty-two SAS Regiment have been landed by means of Sea King Helicopter at the Island. Their activity used to be to smash the eleven enemy plane positioned on the Airstrip at the Island and neutralize the Argentinean strength published there to protect it. fast eighty five
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S. would thwart these measures if they were taken. S. less accurately, 45 the American predictions were inaccurate. It could have been worse. As Gil Merom writes, the Soviets might James G. Blight and David A. , Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (London, UK: Frank Cass, 1998), 22. Emphasis in original. ” 43 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 29. 44 Garthoff, “US Intelligence,” 28, 58. S. Intelligence never did reach a correct conclusion. S. Intelligence,” 28). 45 Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 45.
Military reactions to every perceived Soviet and Cuban threat. Here again, 63 Ben-Israel, “Logic of the Estimate Process,” 679 64 Ben-Israel, “Logic of the Estimate Process,” 691. – 28 – 65 critical thinking could moderate this Cassandrian approach. The questioning of assumptions and points of view in critical thinking allows analysts to discount certain evidence. Based on his own Israeli intelligence analyst experiences, Ben-Israel asserts that anchoring oneself some distance from a pole of refutation, and not far from 66 the center, is probably best.
S. S. sought and was able to obscure them until after the test. Then, the Indian government boasted of its 11 success. Abduction forces a close consideration of the evidence at hand. ” Only then can an assessment of accuracy be determined. ” Despite their individual limitations, induction, deduction, and abduction taken together offer a means of thoroughly examining evidence in order to arrive at accurate intelligence conclusions. However, as becomes obvious from studying figure 1, in order to be successful, intelligence analysis requires something more: an overarching framework is needed to ensure reasoning relies on valid assertions, is not fallacious, and is self–consciously objective.