Show description

Such military conflicts—particularly when they have resulted in military defeat or Untitled-3 36 3/15/05, 1:50 PM Theory, Statistical Tests, and Literature Review 37 Figure 7. Location, Development, and Ethnic Conflict (expanded version of figure 6) Note: Broken lines indicate outcome made less likely rather than more likely. postwar economic isolation—should tend to undermine reform nationalist movements and their market-reform and democratization efforts. Again, this logic calls into question some conventional wisdom about the effects of war.

Second, long-term economic isolation and disruption made reform agendas—whether or not their implementation was attempted—less politically sustainable. This was the case in Armenia, Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Milosˇevi´c’s Serbia, and to a lesser extent, Eduard Shevardnadze’s Georgia. In Serbia, the Milosˇevic´ regime’s ultimate collapse, along with subsequent political and military reforms and the removal of international sanctions, have brightened both near- and longer-term prospects for democratization and market reform.

There are direct and indirect dimensions. Directly, there must be elections in which all parties can compete equally, in which votes are accurately counted, and in which the victors take political power. Indirectly, the ability of parties to compete equally is affected by the ability of individuals to express themselves politically, both through free association and organization for political purposes, and through open competition of political views in the mass media. Rankings on these dimensions are then averaged to produce an overall ranking.