By Bernard Walliser
Economics, facing psychological approaches of selection makers is a part of cognitive technology; conversely, cognitive technological know-how, confronted with constraints on details processing, is a part of economics. In July 1990, the Cecoia 2 convention was once organised in Paris to additional discover the connections among the 2. The papers offered during this quantity illustrate this really interdisciplinary examine intertwining social and cognitive sciences. 3 major issues are represented: agent's psychological illustration while dealing with complicated uncertainty; agent's computational constraints resulting in bounded rationality; agent's studying and evolution in an imperfectly identified atmosphere
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Extra info for Economics and Cognitive Science
Sample text
For long time delays, there is no corre lation between predicted and actual system behavior, and the size of the fluctuations is larger than when there is no time delay by a factor which depends upon the function p. Regardless of the time delay, however, the fluctuations decrease in magnitude as the square root of the number of agents, so the predictions are an adequate, albeit imperfect, substitute for up-to-date information in sufficiently large systems. More realistically, the agents can not be omniscient; indeed, to assume that they are is to ignore one of the primary motivations for analyzing decentralized systems such as the one we are considering.
More realistically, the agents can not be omniscient; indeed, to assume that they are is to ignore one of the primary motivations for analyzing decentralized systems such as the one we are considering. In practice, each agent must make predictions based upon uncertain information about parameters which characterize the other agents' goals (embodied as payoff parameters) and the other agents' knowledge of other agents' goals. , but that each agent believes that all other agents use p*. Then each agent's prediction /*(<) is given by solving Eq.
Pr(AlX. ) = Σ Pr" (ΑΠΧ ) h Phr " ( X h ) This is exactly the proposal of Jeffrey (1965-83) which verifies the following property: Pr + (X h IX) = Pr + (X h ) In fact, there is an asymetry in the treatment of the information, because the message is considered as true (in its probabilistic form, that is at the second level) and the prior distribution is considered as potentially false and modified in consequence. The second method considers that the message and the initial knowledge are equally false and must be corrected each by the other, through the application of the Dempster's rule.