By Gregory F. Treverton
This record assesses intelligence research around the major U.S. intelligence enterprises and makes a couple of thoughts, a few of which parallel tasks that experience all started within the wake of the December 2004 laws, for example, create a Deputy Director of nationwide Intelligence as a focus for research, determine a countrywide Intelligence college, construct an extended time period research Unit on the nationwide Intelligence Council, and shape an Open resource middle for making extra artistic use of open-source fabrics.
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Extra info for Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis (Technical Report)
An aggressive and focused R&D program can improve analytic tradecraft in the future in many ways. Planned analysis experiments and demonstration tests that compare and contrast diﬀerent analytic methodologies; well structured table-top games; better time-management tools; advanced, user-friendly analysis software tools; and improved mechanisms to take advantage of relevant R&D outside the NFIP will all improve the performance of future analysts. 1, which also summarizes the key themes that emerge from looking at the analytic community of today and tomorrow.
It does have its connections to the world of policy. However, the skills for doing that ﬁnal integration and synthesis of ideas that policymakers need to inform decisions may be diﬀerent from the special expertise of the Intelligence Community, which is collecting data and extracting speciﬁc kinds of information from it. Performing that integration and synthesis function is likely to require greater understanding of the policymakers, their agendas and predispositions, and the forms of presentation or argument that they will ﬁnd congenial.
The deﬁnition of tools in this report is broad but not boundless. Tools here means technologies, products, or processes that will help analysts in three ways—ﬁrst, in searching for and dealing with data (easier access to databases, improved search engines, better algorithms and ways for looking for and displaying patterns or outliers, and the like), second, in building and testing hypotheses (for instance, economic models or methods, such as the Delphi techniques or factions analysis, for aggregating subjective judgments5), and third, in communicating more easily both with those who will help them do their work (from analytic work5 For a discussion of a variety of RAND strategic planning methods, especially assumption-based planning, which seeks to identify the critical assumptions on which current policies are based, see Dewar (2002).